By Jean Matua “From the Heart”
The world again is bracing for a war that may or may not come. Russia has been amassing troops, well over 100,000, along the border of Ukraine. And Belarus and its dictator are waging war games with Russia, poised to help in the invasion.
I spent my academic career studying the Soviet Union (before the word “former” was added). When the U.S.S.R. fell in 1991, and its 15 republics became independent countries, I figured all that knowledge was instantly obsolete. Little did I know that the Soviet Empire would make a resurgence, but it is.
It is not easy to tease out all the complex issues within this tangled mess. You have, perhaps firstly, the long history of the Russian Empire, under the unquestioned leadership of a Tsar (unquestioned because the Tsar is placed by God over his people).
Then you have the severe Soviet regime, ruling by fear and intimidation, often with fatal consequences. Millions of people perished, or simply disappeared, under Soviet rule – some opposed the new system, while others were simply caught up in it. The Soviet style of dealing with problems often was akin to using a tank to kill a fly, with no thought to collateral damage.
You also have hundreds of nationalities (and languages) that were forcibly torn apart and reassembled into somewhat fabricated republics. Natural communities were separated between man-made borders, and others were forced together for the first time. When push comes to shove, national and ethnic affinity is a strong force. And, as the Soviet Union collapsed, these natural affinities were at last able to be realized.
It’s not as simple as Russians hating Ukrainians, or vice versa. There are generations of history there, and hundreds of years of being under someone else’s rule.
Now comes the threat of NATO membership for former Soviet republics that are now independent nations.
We have grown up thinking NATO are the “good guys” and the Soviets are the “bad guys.” You may not be surprised to learn that Soviets were brought up to believe the opposite. So much propaganda, on both sides!
The thought of any East European country aligning itself with NATO is as foreign and preposterous (to Russia) as if Canada decided to join the Russian bloc. Do you think the U.S. president (whoever he or she is at the time) would object to Canada becoming a new republic of a new U.S.S.R.? You’d better believe it.
That’s how Putin and his cronies feel about Georgia and Ukraine joining NATO. Georgia began that process more than 20 years ago, and it’s much closer to becoming a member than newcomer Ukraine. History shows Russia’s brutal response and attacks on Georgia to its being wooed by NATO. This won’t end.
There is no doubt that Putin is a megalomaniac whose primary goal is to reunite the U.S.S.R. – under his permanent leadership. I’m certain he has Russia’s best scientists working on ways to keep him alive, and in charge, forever.
But does a full-blown war serve his purposes? I don’t think so. I believe a war would be severely detrimental to Russia and its people. Worse, it will cost money (and Putin loves money almost as much as power).
I think the preparations and threats of war are sabre-rattling – on a giant scale. I believe Putin is sending the world a message: “Don’t mess with us!” But I’m not convinced he will begin a war.
Unfortunately, Americans are acculturated to not care about wars and problems “over there.” It’s someone else’s problem, not ours. That’s partly because of media that often ignores world conflicts. (Can you name more than two or three of the 60 or so wars going on right now in the world?) But the map at the right shows you why we should care. I have family in Georgia, so I always pay attention. We have U.S. troops now in the area, so we should all care (more).
I hope and pray that diplomacy wins out over political expediency this time. We need peacemakers, not bullies; solutions, not bigger (and lethal) problems.